China-built vehicles could account for 58% of Australia’s new-car market by 2035, according to a revised forecast from the Australian Automotive Dealer Association (AADA).
The projection is substantially higher than an earlier study commissioned by AADA, which estimated that vehicles sourced from China would hold a 43% share by 2035.
AADA said stronger-than-expected sales had prompted the revision.
Its forecast would translate to almost 900,000 China-built vehicles being sold annually by the middle of the next decade.
The description covers vehicles manufactured in China, rather than only models sold by Chinese-owned brands.
It may therefore include China-made cars carrying European, American or other international badges.
AADA chief executive James Voortman said the rapid growth of Chinese-sourced vehicles was reshaping competition in Australia, where buyers now have access to an expanding range of brands and models.
Australia is expected to have 67 vehicle brands competing in the market during 2026, with the total projected to reach 75 by 2031.
The association also found growing interest in electric vehicles. Its latest consumer research showed 41% of Australian drivers were considering an EV, while 45% cited lower charging and running costs as a reason.
However, respondents were prepared to pay an average premium of only 2% for an EV, indicating that pricing would remain critical as more Chinese-built models enter the market.
