Battery-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids could account for 75–80% of China’s vehicle market by 2030, according to research from state-owned oil giant Sinopec.
Fairy Wang, vice-president of Sinopec’s Economics and Development Research Institute (EDRI), gave the forecast at the APPEC energy conference in Singapore on Sept 10. The official conference programme listed her presentation under the topic of how electrification is affecting oil demand.
Growth is expected to continue over the next four years, although Wang expects the pace to moderate as penetration approaches higher levels.
China’s shift towards electrified vehicles is already having a sizeable impact on fuel consumption.
Sinopec EDRI estimates that EVs will displace about 56 million tonnes of Chinese oil demand in 2026, equivalent to roughly 1.2 million barrels per day. That works out to almost 15% of the country’s demand for refined oil products, Reuters reported from the conference.
About two-thirds of the displaced demand comes from petrol-powered vehicles, with diesel vehicles accounting for the remainder.
Wang put China’s EV penetration at 65% in July 2026, compared with 53% in 2025 and just 5% in 2020. These figures cover both battery-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids rather than BEVs alone.
She attributed the growth partly to earlier government subsidies and China’s extensive charging network. The country now has about 23 million charging points, including a large proportion installed at homes.
The forecast is particularly notable because it comes from the research arm of China’s largest oil refiner. Rising EV and PHEV adoption is increasingly reducing demand for the petrol and diesel products that have traditionally formed a major part of Sinopec’s business.
